January 2025 market update
The inauguration of only the second U.S. president to win two non-consecutive terms (Grover Cleveland was the first) is historic by a host of measures. Starting a second term of office with the president’s party controlling both houses of Congress gives rise to expectations of an opportunity to move the goalposts on what worked well, […]
December 2024 market update
The transition to a new administration is underway with announcements of cabinet position nominees. The pro-business lean of the incoming government is not a surprise, and the emphasis is likely to be on deregulation and tax cuts. Several of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 were set to expire in […]
November 2024 Market Update
An election season with several twists and turns came to a not-unexpected end with the reelection of President Donald Trump. The received wisdom is that the financial markets hate uncertainty, and we certainly saw some evidence of that in the rally that followed the decisive election results. How will a new White House regime impact […]
October 2024 market update
September equity markets ended the month in positive territory, but with volatility increased. The VIX, the markets “fear index” closed higher than last month, at 16.73, up from 15.00. Intramonth, the values ranged from a high of 23.76 and a low of 14.90. September’s somewhat surprisingly 50-basis point reduction in interest rates kicked of the […]
September 2024 market update
As summer ends and September begins, attention is focused on the long-anticipated change in the Fed’s monetary policy, from holding rates steady to returning rates to lower levels. July and August non-farm payrolls indicate a slowing labor market, but other economic indicators are holding steady and show an economy that is still solid. While there […]
August 2024 market update
After weeks of Olympic-themed press reports about the Fed “sticking the (soft) landing” and safely guiding the economy to a place where inflation is coming down and growth is holding off recession, one very bad labor report flipped the script. The threat of recession is not just in the future, it may be here now, […]
July 2024 market update
At the FOMC meeting in mid-June, the story was the drop in expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2024 to potentially only one rate cut later in the year. However, positive data around inflation and labor markets appears to have counteracted market pessimism about the cautious nature of the Fed’s messaging. As we hit the […]
June 2024 market update
May saw a return to more confidence in the economy and the markets. The Fed met early in the month, and Chairman Powell managed to curb market pessimism by stating that it was unlikely that the Fed’s next move would be a rate hike. The reversal of the upward mini-trend of inflation in February and […]
April 2024 market update
Among the more interesting bits of Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress last year was his admission that he’s been a Grateful Dead fan for 50 years. In his comments at the press conference at the March FOMC meeting, he affirmed that we will see rate cuts this year, even if the timing is, as of […]
March 2024 Market Update
Depending on your focus, the story the recent economic data is telling may be different. But one point of view has been remarkably consistent this year: the market does not seem to care about any of it. February saw the S&P 500’s first break through the 5,000 ceiling, and there were eight new closing highs […]
