November 2025 market update
The fourth quarter has seen the longest government shut down on record, and an election cycle that would seem to reflect some voter dissatisfaction with the status quo. The shutdown has paused official government data sources, but the economy appears to be holding up just fine, and even if consumer sentiment is understandably a bit […]
October 2025 market update
After a pause in interest rate cuts since the last cut at the December 2024 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve finally reduced rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting. Chairman Powell described the decision as a “risk management cut” as they finally got off the balance beam between continuing to prioritize keeping inflation […]
September 2025 market update
An extremely low jobs report for August, released in the first week of September, focused all attention on the jobs market. The real shock wasn’t the low number of jobs created, it was the revisions to prior months that resulted in a negative 13,000 jobs in June. This marked the first contraction of the labor […]
August 2025 market update
July recap and August outlook The hot days of high summer are usually regarded as the “silly season” because, lacking important news, the media tends to look for trivial material that will capture viewers. Not this year. July saw an unrelenting spate of tariff news, shock firings of high-profile government personnel, the President feuding with […]
July 2025 market update
June saw a further complication of the macro situation as U.S. military involvement in Iran was added to ongoing tariff confusion and a worsening of the economic outlook for the balance of 2025 and into 2026. The announcement that a new Fed Chairperson would soon be named essentially created a shadow Fed Chair, increasing the […]
June 2025 market update
May was a month of differing perspectives. Markets turned positive on a belief that a solution on tariffs would be eventually forthcoming, and the continued whipsawing headlines began to have a muted impact. The Fed stuck to its position that more data was needed before a further move on rates. Economic data remained positive, painting […]
May 2025 market update
April began with the shock of tariff announcements that were much more punitive than anticipated by businesses, markets, investors, and economists. Equity markets promptly pulled back, even entering bear territory, although not closing there. The administration initially stood by the tariff enactment date. However, the bond markets became increasingly wobbly, and fears increased that plummeting […]
April 2025 market update
The month started out on a positive note as CPI came in lower than expected, creating a brief respite from worries about the impact of tariffs. It was short-lived, as the result of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at mid-month was policy stasis with no changes to rates. Even more unsettling to the markets […]
Recent Market Volatility – March 2025
Managing Partners Kelly Milligan and Mike Barry discuss the recent market volatility due to uncertainty, tariff policy, inflation and other geopolitical situations.
March 2025 market update
The new administration’s priority of “reindustrializing the U.S.” is coming into focus as tariff announcements – even if softened or rescinded – indicated that this is a policy, not just a campaign plank. Throughout the month, the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”) continued its mandate of shrinking government with a raft of layoffs. Headlines on […]
