When the S&P 500 increases 25% in a calendar year, as it did in 2024, it can be easy to write the year off as a win. Digging into the details, however, can give investors a better sense of the overall health of the economy and trends to watch in 2025.

With that in mind, we put together our annual list of winners and losers, plus the stalwart neutrals that fell somewhere in the middle.

Winners

Republicans

While Republicans may not be a financial instrument per se, the red sweep across Congress and the White House added fuel to the fire for many of the top performers on this list. You’ll see the GOP policy influence surface several times on our “winners” list.

US Stocks in general

As we mentioned earlier, the S&P 500 returned 25% in 2024. But what drove that increase? Remember, the S&P 500 is a weighted index, where larger companies have a bigger impact on how the index performs than smaller companies.

Seven mega-cap tech companies—known as the “magnificent seven”—drove the S&P 500 to several all-time highs. The group, which includes Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta, and Alphabet (Google), gained 64% in 2024.

Small caps also won big in November, particularly following the election and renewed emphasis on “America First” policy initiatives.

Bitcoin 

The original cryptocurrency hit new highs in 2024, topping $100,000 per coin in December. In fact, much of Bitcoin’s rally occurred following the election, as President Trump leaned into pro Bitcoin messaging while simultaneously nominating a crypto advocate as head of the SEC. 

The Republican party enthusiasm for Bitcoin extends beyond the executive branch, too. Senator Cynthia Loomis of Wyoming introduced legislation to create Bitcoin reserves, an idea that’s gaining support. With this approach, the U.S. would keep Bitcoin in reserve to protect U.S. interest, similar to how the government has gold and petroleum reserves.

Gold

The price of gold increased 27% in 2024, beating the S&P 500. Traditionally gold is considered a safety play during inflationary periods, which explains its popularity over the past few years. That thinking may spur gold to new heights in 2025. Many economists believe Trump’s economic policies have the potential to spur inflation. 

Financials

Financial stocks performed well last year; the S&P 500’s financials index gained more than 30% in 2024. In general, financial stocks seemed to be spurred on by a recovering economy, and may benefit from ongoing rate hikes, as lower rates could boost borrower interest. Beyond that, President Trump has signaled a more favorable regulatory environment for banks, which could keep financials on the winners list in 2025.

Private credit

The economy in 2024 created goldilocks conditions for private credit as high-but-falling interest rates created a favorable environment for private lenders.

Neutral

Bonds

Whether bonds had a good year or a bad year in 2024 depends on their duration. Shorter term bonds saw prices increase as the Fed reduced rates; however, the Fed Funds rate remains higher than normal, creating a drag on long-term bond performance.

Commercial real estate

At the start of 2024, many investors thought “return to work” policies would help commercial real estate overcome the slump started by COVID-19. At the end of last year, just 25% of companies allowed for completely flexible working arrangements, less than the 31% we saw at the end of 2023. Still, not every company is enforcing those policies. Plus, stubbornly higher interest rates also contributed to an underwhelming year.  We are seeing green shoots for a more normal year in 2025.

Cash

Cash equivalents are still yielding roughly 4%, much higher than ‘normal.’ While that landed cash a spot in the winner’s circle last year, the Fed’s rate cuts, which started this year and are likely to extend into next year, mean this winning streak may come to an end sooner rather than later, landing cash in a neutral spot on our list. 

Losers

Democrats

The same way the GOP victory in 2024 influenced many of the winners in our list, the dramatic loss by democrats across key states and demographics influenced some of the losers on our list. In fact, 2024 was the first time democrats lost the popular vote for the presidency since 2004.

International markets

This is a fairly broad category, but the dominance of U.S. stocks during the past year combined with a strong U.S. dollar created a challenging situation for international markets. In particular:

China’s economy continued to struggle. During the last Trump administration, the Chinese government helped prop up the economy to offset any strain on bilateral trade, however the government pulled back on those initiatives over the past four years despite the Biden Administration continuing, and even increasing, certain tariffs.

Most global currencies fell against the U.S. Dollar. Remember, currencies trade in pairs, so it’s all relative. Despite inflation in the U.S., the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, making it more durable during periods of global inflation and uncertainty. 

Green energy

The incoming Trump administration is expected to reduce subsidies on green energy while reducing regulations in the oil and gas industry. (“Drill baby drill” remained a common refrain at the 2024 GOP convention.) Solar, wind, and other clean energy stocks tumbled dramatically following Trump’s victory in November. 

Homebuyers

While mortgage rates are starting to come down off recent highs, they’re coming down far slower than many experts expected at the start of 2024. Beyond that, the U.S. housing market still faces a supply shortage, making home buying a relatively expensive prospect in 2024, going into 2025     .

Private equity

It’s been a tough few years for private equity, and 2024 was no exception. Global uncertainty can make PE exits (such as initial public offerings) harder to execute.  Hopes are high for 2025 as S-1 filings (which indicate a company’s intention to go public soon) have picked up dramatically since the election.

Oil

Two big factors have played out in crude oil prices this year—geopolitical risk and U.S. politics. While we saw higher oil prices throughout the summer, thanks in part to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, prices fell towards the end of the year making it a mostly-flat year for oil. That’s good news for consumers filling their gas tanks, but an increased focus on U.S. drilling could drive prices down even further—oil traders surveyed at the end of 2024 predicted prices could fall as low as $60 a barrel in the next four years.

 

To see how these winners and losers do in 2025, be sure to check out our monthly market updates. Or, if you’re curious how anything we discussed in this article might impact your portfolio, set up a time to discuss.