The month started out on a positive note as CPI came in lower than expected, creating a brief respite from worries about the impact of tariffs. It was short-lived, as the result of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at mid-month was policy stasis with no changes to rates. Even more unsettling to the markets was the Fedās signal of fewer rate cuts in 2025.
Performance in both stocks and bonds has responded to the prospect of rate cuts, even if the timing continues to be delayed.
As jargon goes, āyield curveā is one of the worst offenders. However, when you look closely at how interest rates work, itās easy to understand why the yield curve is important, and why many traders and investors use it to help forecast whatās ahead for markets and the economy.
April had it all, and most of it was not so great. Inflation is proving sticky again and the economy grew less than expected in the first quarter.
The transition to a new administration is underway with announcements of cabinet position nominees. The pro-business lean of the incoming government is not a surprise, and the emphasis is likely to be on deregulation and tax cuts. Several of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 were set to expire in 2025, and those may get a reprieve.
Positive data around inflation and labor markets appears to have counteracted market pessimism surrounding the Fed.